Section 1125.540  Service Demand – Establishment of General Long-Term Care

a)         The number of beds proposed to establish a new general long-term care service is necessary to accommodate the service demand experienced annually by the existing applicant facility over the latest two-year period, as evidenced by historical and projected referrals, or if the applicant proposes to establish a new LTC facility, the applicant shall submit projected referrals.  The applicant shall document subsection (c) and subsection (d) or (e).

b)         If the applicant is not an existing facility and proposes to establish a new general LTC facility, the applicant shall submit the number of annual projected referrals, as required in subsection (d) or (e).

c)         Historical Referrals

If the applicant is an existing facility and is proposing to establish this category of service, the applicant shall document the number of referrals to other facilities, for each proposed category of service, for each of the latest two years.  Documentation of the referrals shall include: resident/patient origin by zip code; name and specialty of referring physician or identification of another referral source; and name and location of the recipient LTC facility.

d)         Projected Referrals

An applicant proposing to establish a category of service or establish a new LTC facility shall submit the following:

1)         Letters from referral sources (hospitals, physicians, social services and others) that attest to total number of prospective residents (by zip code of residence) who have received care at existing LTC facilities located in the area during the 12-month period prior to submission of the application. Referral sources shall verify their projections and the methodology used;

2)         An estimated number of prospective residents whom the referral sources will refer annually to the applicant's facility within a 24-month period after project completion.  The anticipated number of referrals cannot exceed the referral sources' documented historical LTC caseload.  The percentage of project referrals used to justify the proposed expansion cannot exceed the historical percentage of applicant market share, within a 24-month period after project completion;

3)         Each referral letter shall contain the referral source's Chief Executive Officer's notarized signature, the typed or printed name of the referral source, and the referral source's address; and

4)         Verification by the referral sources that the prospective resident referrals have not been used to support another pending or approved Certificate of Need (CON) application for the subject services.

e)         Projected Service Demand − Based on Rapid Population Growth

If a projected demand for service is based upon rapid population growth in the applicant facility's existing market area (as experienced annually within the latest 24-month period), the projected service demand shall be determined as follows:

1)         The applicant shall define the facility's market area based upon historical resident/patient origin data by zip code or census tract;

2)         Population projections shall be produced, using, as a base, the population census or estimate for the most recent year, for county, incorporated place,     township or community area, by the U.S. Bureau of the Census or IDPH;

3)         Projections shall be for a maximum period of 10 years from the date the application is submitted;

4)         Historical data used to calculate projections shall be for a number of years no less than the number of years projected;

5)         Projections shall contain documentation of population changes in terms of births, deaths and net migration for a period of time equal to or in excess of the projection horizon;

6)         Projections shall be for total population and specified age groups for the applicant's market area, as defined by HFSRB, for each category of service in the application (see the HFSRB Inventory); and

7)         Documentation on projection methodology, data sources, assumptions and special adjustments shall be submitted to HFSRB.